Glossary · Legal Concept
Expected Value
The probability-weighted worth of a case before its outcome is known, found by multiplying payment probability by expected payout; the right figure for ranking cases at intake.
Also known as: expected case value, probability-weighted value, EV
What it is
Expected value is what a case is worth before its outcome is known, found by multiplying payment probability by expected payout. Because it accounts for both the odds of any payment and the size of that payment, it is the appropriate figure for ranking and comparing cases at intake. It draws on two of the Hooper Engine's core outputs.
How to read it
A case with a 60 percent payment probability and a $200,000 expected payout has an expected value of $120,000. A case with a 20 percent probability and a $500,000 payout has an expected value of $100,000, despite the larger headline figure. Ranked by expected value, the first case is the stronger intake.
Why it matters
Expected value corrects the most common valuation error: anchoring on a large potential payout while ignoring how rarely that profile pays. It puts a rare-but-large case and a frequent-but-modest case on the same scale, so they can be compared honestly.
See Also
- Payment Probability — The likelihood, expressed as a percentage, that a medical malpractice case with a given profile results in any payment; the first of the Hooper Engine's three core outputs and the signal for whether a claim is worth pursuing.
- Payout Range — The Hooper Engine's low, expected, and high estimate of what a medical malpractice case will pay if it results in payment, adjusted to current dollars.
- Outcome Severity Distribution — The spread showing how comparable medical malpractice cases divide across small, significant, and large payments, used to gauge how volatile a case profile is; distinct from insurance "severity," which is average cost per claim.
- Hooper Engine — MedMalPredict's proprietary AI prediction system, trained on more than 270,000 historical medical malpractice cases, that produces jurisdiction-aware predictions for payment probability, payout range, and outcome severity.