September 2, 2026
Payment Probability and Expected Value: How to Combine Them at Intake
A high payout means nothing if the case rarely pays. A high chance of payment means nothing if the payout is small. Intake decisions need both numbers multiplied together, not weighed separately. Here is the simple math, and the trap it helps you avoid.
Category: Case Strategy|Reading time: ~3 min
Two numbers drive a contingency intake decision: how often a case like this pays, and how much it pays when it does. Most people look at both. Fewer people combine them, and that is where good cases get passed over and weak ones get taken.
The fix is one line of arithmetic.
The two numbers
A case prediction from the Hooper Engine, the model behind MedMalPredict, gives you a payment probability and an expected payout.
- Payment probability is the share of comparable cases that resulted in any payment.
- Expected payout is the midpoint figure for the cases that did pay.
Read on their own, each number can mislead you. A large payout looks attractive until you see that the profile pays only one time in ten. A high chance of payment looks safe until you see that the payouts are small.
Multiply them
To compare cases at intake, multiply the two:
Payment probability × expected payout = expected value
Expected value is what a case is worth before you know how it turns out. It is the number to rank cases by, because it already accounts for both the odds and the size of the reward.
Here is a worked example with round figures, purely to show the method:
- Case A: 60 percent chance of payment, $200,000 expected payout. Expected value: $120,000.
- Case B: 20 percent chance of payment, $500,000 expected payout. Expected value: $100,000.
Case B has the bigger headline number. Case A is the better intake, because it is worth more once you weigh the odds. If you ranked these by payout alone, you would pick the weaker case.
(These figures are illustrative, not results from the record. Run your own case for real numbers.)
Weigh the cost of the work
Expected value is the reward side. Intake also has a cost side: the hours, the experts, and the filing expense a case will demand. A useful next step is simple:
Expected value minus expected cost = what the case is really worth to the firm
A case with a $120,000 expected value that needs $150,000 of work to win is not a good case, however strong it looks in isolation. A case with a smaller expected value and a light workload can be the better use of the same time.
The trap this avoids
The most common intake mistake is anchoring on the payout and ignoring the probability.
A single large verdict in memory pulls attention toward big-payout profiles, even when those profiles rarely pay. Multiplying by the probability corrects for that pull. It forces the rare-but-large case and the frequent-but-modest case onto the same scale, so you compare them honestly instead of by which one is easier to imagine winning.
What the numbers do not tell you
This math ranks cases. It does not decide them.
A prediction describes comparable cases in the record. Your case has facts the record cannot see: a credible client, a strong expert, a sympathetic injury, a defendant with a reason to settle early. Those can move a case well off its profile.
Use the expected value to sort your intake and to spot the cases worth a closer look. Then let the specific facts, not the average, make the final call.
Try It
Run your next three intakes, multiply probability by expected payout, and rank them. The order may not be the one your first instinct gave you.
MedMalPredict AI is not legal advice. Predictions are based on historical data and represent probabilities, not guarantees.
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