MedMalPredict

Glossary · Legal Concept

Empirical Baseline

The median payout of similar historical cases before any modeling, used as the plain benchmark the Hooper Engine's prediction is measured against.

Also known as: cohort median, empirical baseline median, baseline median

What it is

The empirical baseline is the median payout of similar historical cases, matched on factors such as state, license type, and injury severity, before any modeling is applied. In a report it is the first of the four payout stages, the plain "what have cases like this paid" number.

How to read it

The baseline is the reference point the rest of the payout is measured against. The Hooper Model prediction, the human-factors adjustment, and the expected value are all easier to judge once you know where the raw historical median sits. A prediction far above the baseline signals case-specific factors doing heavy lifting; one near it rests on the comparables alone.

Why it matters

Because it involves no modeling, the empirical baseline is the most defensible single number in the report. It is the figure a skeptical opponent is least able to argue with, which makes it a useful anchor in a negotiation.